Military Modernization Efforts Spur FurtherMiddle East Defense Growth
هذا التقرير من موقع ديفينس توك العالمى ويتحدث عن زيادة الإنفاق العسكرى لدول الشرق الأوسط
والمشتريات العسكريه لهذه الدول خلال الخمس سنوات القادمه
سأقوم بترجمة التقرير كامل
وسأقوم بإضافة بعض المعلومات
مع بعض الفيديوهات
النص الأصلى للتقرير باللغه الإنجليزيه
Medium-term regional defense growth will stem from not only the two core Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, but also Iraq. Faced with internal security challenges, plus the need to solidify its borders, Baghdad will invest an average of $12.5 billion annually through 2015 towards the advancing development of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The [principal] area of Iraqi investment going forward will be in bolstering the Iraqi The Middle East defense spending binge is set to grow further in coming years as Gulf Arab nations embark on military modernization programs. In its annual Middle East market analysis, Forecast International expects defense investment across the region to expand by 14 percent over the next five years. The region's continuation as a leading global area for military expenditure is being spurred by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Air Force
The impending exodus of U.S. forces from Iraq combined with a broad range of equipment requirements means that the pace of fitting-out the ISF will have to accelerate if the central government is to capably provide security. Such progress may be hindered if Pentagon investment in the Iraqi Security Forces Fund dries up due to Washington's own budgetary pressures at home.
Since 2005 the U.S. Department of Defense has allocated about $19.1 billion to the fund. As a result of U.S. financial largesse the bulk of Iraqi equipment orders flow through the Pentagon's government-to-government Foreign Military Sales (FMS) channel ensuring U.S. defense companies are the beneficiaries.
"Although the Iraqi government would like to diversify its supply chain, the U.S. remains its principal provider of military equipment," says Forecast Middle East defense analyst Dan Darling. "So long as U.S. funding towards the development of the new Iraqi Security Forces continues, this is unlikely to change. Should Washington turn off the tap, others will surely step into the void, including France, Russia and suppliers from Eastern Europe."
While Iraq provides a robust market opportunity due to the ongoing ISF rebuilding process, the scale of investment in the Gulf region is higher. Spearheaded by a $60 billion package of approved FMS agreements, Saudi Arabia aims to upgrade its air fleet with new and refurbished F-15 jet fighters and new helicopters including up to 70 Boeing AH-64D Apaches, 36 Boeing AH-6i Little Birds and 72 Sikorsky UH-60M BlackHawks. In addition there is mention of a major Royal Saudi Navy upgrade program also being pursued through Pentagon FMS channels that could be worth up to $30 billion.
Mirroring the Saudi efforts, the UAE is also undertaking a modernization of its Air Force. This modernization includes an approved FMS agreement for the purchase of 60 AH-64D Apache helicopters. The UAE is also in the process of considering successors for its fleet of Mirage 2000 jet fighters in what may ultimately prove to be a 60-unit buy worth up to $10 billion. Additional areas that the UAE may seek to upgrade include littoral protection and air defense.
Concrete defense cooperation amongst the six GCC members continues to be elusive, leaving each nation to pursue their needs independently. Thus the UAE, Kuwait and possibly Qatar are each contemplating a buy of the Dassault Rafale combat aircraft while the Saudis and Oman seek U.S.-built solutions to their jet fighter needs.
But despite the lack of progress within the GCC in terms of a common procurement approach, the one constant is that at the national level defense investment remains robust, generally representing between 10-20 percent of total state expenditure annually. For 2010 combined GCC defense/security investment was $68.3 billion. Forecast International expects that total to increase to $73.4 billion in 2011 and continue growing to $82.5 billion by 2015.
"Fearing Iran's regional strength the GCC states continue to seek a distinct qualitative military-technological edge over Tehran," Darling says. "But Iran's manpower and missile strengths camouflage some serious weaknesses, such as command-and-control shortcomings, a combat aircraft fleet falling into disrepair and an armored vehicle inventory of questionable capability. Other than its long-range missiles, Iran is limited for now in its ability to project conventional military power across the Gulf. In other words, some GCC countries may be susceptible to over-buying for a certain kind of threat that is not readily apparent."
Though it may lack the modern material seen in most Tier 1 militaries, this is not indicative of reluctance by Iran to improve and expand its weaponry or invest in defense. Tehran spends around $9.3-9.5 billion annually, a trend Forecast expects to continue in the near-term. This level of expenditure places it amongst the five highest defense spenders in the region, behind Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq and the UAE. Much of Iran's defense investment goes towards personnel costs, missile programs, upgrading existing platforms and developing indigenous hardware.
Because of the myriad threats it faces, Israel continues to place a premium on military funding. Aided by U.S. Foreign Military Financing (FMF) of $3 billion, the country continues to invest in modern jet fighters, its multi-layered anti-missile air-defense network, unmanned aerial vehicles, the Namer heavy infantry fighting vehicle and a slew of other projects. Impending purchases include a new advanced jet trainer and two large missile corvettes.
Egypt is also a beneficiary of generous U.S. FMF allotments, receiving about $1.3 billion per year. Forecast expects Egyptian defense spending defense over the next five years to reach around $16 billion, with Israeli spending coming to over $64 billion during that same timeframe.
"The major defense markets of the Middle East continue to be dominated by the U.S.," Darling says. "Russia has footholds in Syria and Yemen and is making efforts to help equip the Lebanese Armed Forces. But its regional market share pales in comparison to that of the U.S. With President Medvedev signing a decree back in September banning the supply of a variety of Russian armaments to Iran, the other major market for which Moscow was the principal supplier is now likely to be ceded to China."
Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide
(IQAF). The IQAF plans to field 500 fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft by 2020; its pressing needs include advanced jet trainers and combat aircraft.
http://www.defencetalk.com/military-...-growth-31401
هذا التقرير من موقع ديفينس توك العالمى ويتحدث عن زيادة الإنفاق العسكرى لدول الشرق الأوسط
والمشتريات العسكريه لهذه الدول خلال الخمس سنوات القادمه
سأقوم بترجمة التقرير كامل
وسأقوم بإضافة بعض المعلومات
مع بعض الفيديوهات
النص الأصلى للتقرير باللغه الإنجليزيه
Medium-term regional defense growth will stem from not only the two core Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, but also Iraq. Faced with internal security challenges, plus the need to solidify its borders, Baghdad will invest an average of $12.5 billion annually through 2015 towards the advancing development of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The [principal] area of Iraqi investment going forward will be in bolstering the Iraqi The Middle East defense spending binge is set to grow further in coming years as Gulf Arab nations embark on military modernization programs. In its annual Middle East market analysis, Forecast International expects defense investment across the region to expand by 14 percent over the next five years. The region's continuation as a leading global area for military expenditure is being spurred by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Air Force
The impending exodus of U.S. forces from Iraq combined with a broad range of equipment requirements means that the pace of fitting-out the ISF will have to accelerate if the central government is to capably provide security. Such progress may be hindered if Pentagon investment in the Iraqi Security Forces Fund dries up due to Washington's own budgetary pressures at home.
Since 2005 the U.S. Department of Defense has allocated about $19.1 billion to the fund. As a result of U.S. financial largesse the bulk of Iraqi equipment orders flow through the Pentagon's government-to-government Foreign Military Sales (FMS) channel ensuring U.S. defense companies are the beneficiaries.
"Although the Iraqi government would like to diversify its supply chain, the U.S. remains its principal provider of military equipment," says Forecast Middle East defense analyst Dan Darling. "So long as U.S. funding towards the development of the new Iraqi Security Forces continues, this is unlikely to change. Should Washington turn off the tap, others will surely step into the void, including France, Russia and suppliers from Eastern Europe."
While Iraq provides a robust market opportunity due to the ongoing ISF rebuilding process, the scale of investment in the Gulf region is higher. Spearheaded by a $60 billion package of approved FMS agreements, Saudi Arabia aims to upgrade its air fleet with new and refurbished F-15 jet fighters and new helicopters including up to 70 Boeing AH-64D Apaches, 36 Boeing AH-6i Little Birds and 72 Sikorsky UH-60M BlackHawks. In addition there is mention of a major Royal Saudi Navy upgrade program also being pursued through Pentagon FMS channels that could be worth up to $30 billion.
Mirroring the Saudi efforts, the UAE is also undertaking a modernization of its Air Force. This modernization includes an approved FMS agreement for the purchase of 60 AH-64D Apache helicopters. The UAE is also in the process of considering successors for its fleet of Mirage 2000 jet fighters in what may ultimately prove to be a 60-unit buy worth up to $10 billion. Additional areas that the UAE may seek to upgrade include littoral protection and air defense.
Concrete defense cooperation amongst the six GCC members continues to be elusive, leaving each nation to pursue their needs independently. Thus the UAE, Kuwait and possibly Qatar are each contemplating a buy of the Dassault Rafale combat aircraft while the Saudis and Oman seek U.S.-built solutions to their jet fighter needs.
But despite the lack of progress within the GCC in terms of a common procurement approach, the one constant is that at the national level defense investment remains robust, generally representing between 10-20 percent of total state expenditure annually. For 2010 combined GCC defense/security investment was $68.3 billion. Forecast International expects that total to increase to $73.4 billion in 2011 and continue growing to $82.5 billion by 2015.
"Fearing Iran's regional strength the GCC states continue to seek a distinct qualitative military-technological edge over Tehran," Darling says. "But Iran's manpower and missile strengths camouflage some serious weaknesses, such as command-and-control shortcomings, a combat aircraft fleet falling into disrepair and an armored vehicle inventory of questionable capability. Other than its long-range missiles, Iran is limited for now in its ability to project conventional military power across the Gulf. In other words, some GCC countries may be susceptible to over-buying for a certain kind of threat that is not readily apparent."
Though it may lack the modern material seen in most Tier 1 militaries, this is not indicative of reluctance by Iran to improve and expand its weaponry or invest in defense. Tehran spends around $9.3-9.5 billion annually, a trend Forecast expects to continue in the near-term. This level of expenditure places it amongst the five highest defense spenders in the region, behind Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq and the UAE. Much of Iran's defense investment goes towards personnel costs, missile programs, upgrading existing platforms and developing indigenous hardware.
Because of the myriad threats it faces, Israel continues to place a premium on military funding. Aided by U.S. Foreign Military Financing (FMF) of $3 billion, the country continues to invest in modern jet fighters, its multi-layered anti-missile air-defense network, unmanned aerial vehicles, the Namer heavy infantry fighting vehicle and a slew of other projects. Impending purchases include a new advanced jet trainer and two large missile corvettes.
Egypt is also a beneficiary of generous U.S. FMF allotments, receiving about $1.3 billion per year. Forecast expects Egyptian defense spending defense over the next five years to reach around $16 billion, with Israeli spending coming to over $64 billion during that same timeframe.
"The major defense markets of the Middle East continue to be dominated by the U.S.," Darling says. "Russia has footholds in Syria and Yemen and is making efforts to help equip the Lebanese Armed Forces. But its regional market share pales in comparison to that of the U.S. With President Medvedev signing a decree back in September banning the supply of a variety of Russian armaments to Iran, the other major market for which Moscow was the principal supplier is now likely to be ceded to China."
Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide
(IQAF). The IQAF plans to field 500 fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft by 2020; its pressing needs include advanced jet trainers and combat aircraft.
http://www.defencetalk.com/military-...-growth-31401
الترجمه العربيه الكامله
من المقرر أن تزيد ميزانية الدفاع فى منطقة الشرق الأوسط
وخاصة دول الخليج التى تشهد برامج تحديثات عسكريه طموحه
وتشير المؤسسات الدوليه أن إرتفاع الإنفاق على الدفاع سيزيد بنسبة 14% خلال الخمس سنوات القادمه
وتصنف المنطقه بأنها منطقه عالميه رائده فى مشتريات السلاح
وخاصة بسبب الإنفاق الكبير لدولتى الإمارات العربيه المتحده والمملكه العربيه السعوديه
العراق
وليس هذا فقط بل أيضآ دخول العراق على الخط الذى يريد إعادة بناء قوته العسكريه
ليواجه التحديات الداخليه والخارجيه ومن المقرر أن ينفق العراق 12.5 مليار حتى عام 2015
ويهدف العراق
إلى إمتلاك قوات جويه يبلغ عددها 500 طائره خلال عام 2020
ما بين مقاتلات ومروحيات وطائرات تدريب
وهذا بسبب إرادة العراق السيطره على الأمور الأمنيه وخاصة بعد رحيل القوات الأمريكيه المحتله الوشيك
عن العراق
وتعمل الولايات المتحده على ان تكون المورد المسيطر للقوه العسكريه العراقيه وأنشأت صندوق خاص للمبيعات العسكريه
للعراق منذ عام 2005
ورغم ذلك يريد العراق تنويع مصادر السلاح والذهاب إلى دول مثل روسيا وفرنسا وبعض دول أوروبا الشرقيه
تعد المقاتله الأف16 والدبابه إبرامز من اهم المشتريات العسكريه الأمريكيه من الولايات المتحده
المملكه العربيه السعوديه
عقدت المملكه العربيه السعوديه مع الولايات المتحده صفقه كبيره بمبلغ يصل إلى 60 مليار دولار
لدعم سلاح الجو السعودى بطائرات مقاتله و مروحيات
ويجرى أيضآ إعداد صفقه خاصه بسلاح البحريه السعودى تصل قيمتها إلى 30 مليار دولار
وستكون سفن القتال الساحلىlcs 2 أهم جزء فى هذه الصفقه
الإمارات العربيه المتحده
الإمارات تريد دعم أسطولها الجوى
وتريد شراء 60 مروحيه امريكيه من طراز أباتشى
وهناك برنامج لدخول 60 مقاتله جديده مكان مقاتلات الميراج2000 الفرنسيه
فى صفقه ستصل تكلفتها إلى 10 مليارات دولار
إضافه إلى ذلك
تعمل الأمارات
على دعم دفاعاتها البحريه على سواحلها
ودعم الدفاع الجوى فى كامل أنحاء الدوله
الرافال ستكون صاحبة الحظ الأوفر فى الصفقه الإماراتيه وهناك أخبار عن منافسه من المقاتله الأمريكيه الأف18
ملحوظه
برغم المشتريات العسكريه الكبيره لدول الخليج
إلا ان التعاون بينهم فى هذا المجال لا يزال بعيد المنال
فقطر والإمارات والكويت
تريد تحديث سلاح الجو وربما يتجهان إلى فرنسا لشراء الرافال
بينما ذهبت السعوديه وعمان
إلى امريكا لشراء ما يحتاجون
وعلى الرغم من عدم تعاون دول الخليج فى مشترياتها العسكريه
إلا ان هذه الدول تشهد زياده سنويه فى الإنفاق العسكرى تقدر بين 10% إلى 20% سنويآ
إجمالى الإنفاق العسكرى لدول الخليج فى هام 2010
بلغ 68 مليار و300 مليون دولار
ومن المقرر أن يبلغ فى 2011
مبلغ 73 مليار و400 مليون دولار
وسيصل إلى 82.5 مليار دولار فى عام 2015
ويدفع القلق الذى تشعر به دول الخليج تجاه إيران تسعى للحصول على تكنولوجيا عسكريه نوعيه تتيح لها
التفوق النوعى على إيران
إيران
وبرغم من تطوير إيران لقدرتها الصاروخيه
إلا ان ذلك تمويه لإخفاء الضعف فى القوات المسلحه الإيرانيه
وتشمل نقاط الضعف الإيرانيه
فى القياده والسيطره
وأسطول المقاتلات الإيرانيه المتقادمه التى تعانى من حاله سيئه
وسلاح المدرعات
وهناك شكوك فى قدرة الصواريخ الإيرانيه بعيدة المدى
وهذا يؤجل المشروع الإيرانى الذى يريد ان تكون إيران قوه تقليديه مسيطره على الخليج
وبعباره اخرى
قد تكون دول الخليج تنفق مبالغ طائله على تهديد غير واضح
وعلى الرغم من إيران تفتقر إلى القوه العسكريه الحديثه
إلا إنها تنقق مبلغ 9.3 مليار دولار سنويآ على الدفاع مما يضعها بين اكبر خمس دول فى المنطقه من حيث الإنفاق على الدفاع
بعد
المملكه العربيه السعوديه
إسرائيل
العراق
الإمارات العربيه المتحده
ومعظم النفقات العسكريه الإيرانيه تشمل برنامج الصواريخ و مرتبات الموظفين وتحسين الأنظمه العامله فى الخدمه
إسرائيل
بسبب التهديدات التى تواجهها تواصل الإنفاق المتزايد على الدفاع بجانب مساعدات عسكريه تصل إلى 3 مليارات دولار سنويآ
ويشمل الإنفاق العسكرى الإسرائيلى
تحديث المقاتلات
وبناء منظومة دفاع جوى متطوره
وتصنيع الكثير من الطائرات بدون طيار
وعدد كبير من المشاريع الأخرى
وتشمل المشتريات العسكريه الإسرائيليه القادمه
طائرات تدريب نفاثه
إثنان من الكورفيت الحامله للصواريخ
مقاتلات من طراز f35
مصر
هى أيضآ تتلقا مساعدات عسكريه أمريكيه تصل إلى 1.3 مليار دولار سنويآ
ومن المقرر أن تنفق على الدفاع خلال الخمس سنوات القادمه مبلغ 16 مليار دولار
مقارنة بإسرائيل
التى ستنفق على الدفاع خلال الخمس سنوات القادمه مبلغ يقدر ب 64 مليار
أى أربعة أضعاف الإنفاق العسكرى المصرى
مصر أيضآ ستحصل على 20 مقاتله أف16
وزاورق إمباسادور مسلحه بالهاربون
ومزيد من دبابات الإبرامز المصنعه محليآ
وصواريخ هيل فاير للأباتشى
مع بعض المعدات الأخرى من امريكا
وهناك اخبار عن صفقه للدفاع الجوى مع روسيا
وعن إحتياج مصر لغواصات ولكن اخبار الغواصات لازالت غير مؤكده إلى الأن
دول أخرى
لا زالت الولايات المتحده تسيطر على المبيعات العسكريه لدول كثيره فى الشرق الأوسط
و روسيا لديه مؤطىء
فى سوريا واليمن وتعمل على دعم الجيش اللبنانى
ولكن حصتها فى المنطقه قليله بالمقارنه مع الولايات المتحده الأمريكيه
وفى سبتمبر الماضى
وقع الرئيس الروسى ميدفيدف على قرار بحظر بيع بعض المعدات العسكريه إلى إيران
التى تعتبر سوق للسلاح الروسى
وهذا يكون بمثابة التنازل عن هذه السوق الإيرانيه للسلاح الصينى
سوريا
تعاقدت بالفعل على الميج29 وصواريخ ياخونت وصواريخ بانتيسير و بوك للدفاع الجوى
اليمن
اعتقد أنه سيشهد طفره فى التسليح فى السنوات القادمه
لسببين
انه تعاقد مع روسيا على صفقه عسكريه تتعدى المليار دولار
وهناك مساعدات امريكيه لدعم اليمن فيما يسما بالحرب على الأرهاب تتعدى المليارى دولار
تعاقدت بالفعل على الميج29 وصواريخ ياخونت وصواريخ بانتيسير و بوك للدفاع الجوى
اليمن
اعتقد أنه سيشهد طفره فى التسليح فى السنوات القادمه
لسببين
انه تعاقد مع روسيا على صفقه عسكريه تتعدى المليار دولار
وهناك مساعدات امريكيه لدعم اليمن فيما يسما بالحرب على الأرهاب تتعدى المليارى دولار
